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THE BLUET

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2162-35
An interesting phenomenon that arose from social media is the concept of social proof. It's easier for a person to accept new values or ideas when they see that others have already done so. If the person they see accepting the new idea happens to be a friend, then social proof has even more power by exerting peer pressure as well as relying on the trust that people put in the judgments of their close friends. For example, a video about some issue may be controversial on its own but more credible if it got thousands of likes. If a friend recommends the video to you, in many cases, the credibility of the idea it presents will rise in direct proportion to the trust you place in the friend recommending the video. This is the power of social media and part of the reason why videos or "posts" can become "viral."

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Consider the story of two men quarreling in a library. One wants the window open and the other wants it closed. They argue back and forth about how much to leave it open: a crack, halfway, or three‑quarters of the way. No solution satisfies them both. Enter the librarian. She asks one why he wants the window open: "To get some fresh air." She asks the other why he wants it closed: "To avoid a draft." After thinking a minute, she opens wide a window in the next room, bringing in fresh air without a draft. This story is typical of many negotiations. Since the parties' problem appears to be a conflict of positions, they naturally tend to talk about positions — and often reach an impasse. The librarian could not have invented the solution she did if she had focused only on the two men's stated positions of wanting the window open or closed. Instead, she looked to their underlying interests of fresh air and no draft.

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In one survey, 61 percent of Americans said that they supported the government spending more on 'assistance to the poor'. But when the same population was asked whether they supported spending more government money on 'welfare', only 21 percent were in favour. In other words, if you ask people about individual welfare programmes — such as giving financial help to people who have long‑term illnesses and paying for school meals for families with low income — people are broadly in favour of them. But if you ask about 'welfare' — which refers to those exact same programmes that you've just listed — they're against it. The word 'welfare' has negative connotations, perhaps because of the way many politicians and newspapers portray it. Therefore, the framing of a question can heavily influence the answer in many ways, which matters if your aim is to obtain a 'true measure' of what people think. And next time you hear a politician say 'surveys prove that the majority of the people agree with me', be very wary.

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Risk often arises from uncertainty about how to approach a problem or situation. One way to avoid such risk is to contract with a party who is experienced and knows how to do it. For example, to minimize the financial risk associated with the capital cost of tooling and equipment for production of a large, complex system, a manufacturer might subcontract the production of the system's major components to suppliers familiar with those components. This relieves the manufacturer of the financial risk associated with the tooling and equipment to produce these components. However, transfer of one kind of risk often means inheriting another kind. For example, subcontracting work for the components puts the manufacturer in the position of relying on outsiders, which increases the risks associated with quality control, scheduling, and the performance of the end‑item system. But these risks often can be reduced through careful management of the suppliers.

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Ransom Olds, the father of the Oldsmobile, could not produce his "horseless carriages" fast enough. In 1901 he had an idea to speed up the manufacturing process — instead of building one car at a time, he created the assembly line. The acceleration in production was unheard‑of — from an output of 425 automobiles in 1901 to an impressive 2,500 cars the following year. While other competitors were in awe of this incredible volume, Henry Ford dared to ask, "Can we do even better?" He was, in fact, able to improve upon Olds's clever idea by introducing conveyor belts to the assembly line. As a result, Ford's production went through the roof. Instead of taking a day and a half to manufacture a Model T, as in the past, he was now able to spit them out at a rate of one car every ninety minutes. The moral of the story is that good progress is often the herald of great progress.

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