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THE BLUET

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1862-31
Do you advise your kids to keep away from strangers? That's a tall order for adults. After all, you expand your network of friends and create potential business partners by meeting strangers. Throughout this process, however, analyzing people to understand their personalities is not all about potential economic or social benefit. There is your safety to think about, as well as the safety of your loved ones. For that reason, Mary Ellen O'Toole, who is a retired FBI profiler, emphasizes the need to go beyond a person's superficial qualities in order to understand them. It is not safe, for instance, to assume that a stranger is a good neighbor, just because they're polite. Seeing them follow a routine of going out every morning well-dressed doesn't mean that's the whole story. In fact, O'Toole says that when you are dealing with a criminal, even your feelings may fail you. That's because criminals have perfected the art of manipulation and deceit.

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"Survivorship bias" is a common logical fallacy. We're prone to listen to the success stories from survivors because the others aren't around to tell the tale. A dramatic example from history is the case of statistician Abraham Wald who, during World War Ⅱ, was hired by the U.S・ Air Force to determine how to make their bomber planes safer. The planes that returned tended to have bullet holes along the wings, body, and tail, and commanders wanted to reinforce those areas because they seemed to get hit most often. Wald, however, saw that the important thing was that these bullet holes had not destroyed the planes, and what needed more protection were the areas that were not hit. Those were the parts where, if a plane was struck by a bullet, it would never be seen again. His calculations based on that logic are still in use today, and they have saved many pilots.

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In the early 2000s, British psychologist Richard Wiseman performed a series of experiments with people who viewed themselves as either 'lucky'(they were successful and happy, and events in their lives seemed to favor them) or 'unlucky'(life just seemed to go wrong for them). What he found was that the 'lucky' people were good at spotting opportunities. In one experiment he told both groups to count the number of pictures in a newspaper. The 'unlucky' diligently ground their way through the task; the 'lucky' usually noticed that the second page contained an announcement that said: "Stop counting — there are 43 photographs in this newspaper." On a later page, the 'unlucky' were also too busy counting images to spot a note reading: "Stop counting, tell the experimenter you have seen this, and win $250." Wiseman's conclusion was that, when faced with a challenge, 'unlucky' people were less flexible. They focused on a specific goal, and failed to notice that other options were passing them by.

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Appreciating the collective nature of knowledge can correct our false notions of how we see the world. People love heroes. Individuals are given credit for major breakthroughs. Marie Curie is treated as if she worked alone to discover radioactivity and Newton as if he discovered the laws of motion by himself. The truth is that in the real world, nobody operates alone. Scientists not only have labs with students who contribute critical ideas, but also have colleagues who are doing similar work, thinking similar thoughts, and without whom the scientist would get nowhere. And then there are other scientists who are working on different problems, sometimes in different fields, but nevertheless set the stage through their own findings and ideas. Once we start understanding that knowledge isn't all in the head, that it's shared within a community, our heroes change. Instead of focusing on the individual, we begin to focus on a larger group.

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Your story is what makes you special. But the tricky part is showing how special you are without talking about yourself. Effective personal branding isn't about talking about yourself all the time. Although everyone would like to think that friends and family are eagerly waiting by their computers hoping to hear some news about what you're doing, they're not. Actually, they're hoping you're sitting by your computer, waiting for news about them. The best way to build your personal brand is to talk more about other people, events, and ideas than you talk about yourself. By doing so, you promote their victories and their ideas, and you become an influencer. You are seen as someone who is not only helpful, but is also a valuable resource. That helps your brand more than if you just talk about yourself over and over.

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