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THE BLUET

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2332-24
Winning turns on a self‑conscious awareness that others are watching. It's a lot easier to move under the radar when no one knows you and no one is paying attention. You can mess up and be rough and get dirty because no one even knows you're there. But as soon as you start to win, and others start to notice, you're suddenly aware that you're being observed. You're being judged. You worry that others will discover your flaws and weaknesses, and you start hiding your true personality, so you can be a good role model and good citizen and a leader that others can respect. There is nothing wrong with that. But if you do it at the expense of being who you really are, making decisions that please others instead of pleasing yourself, you're not going to be in that position very long. When you start apologizing for who you are, you stop growing and you stop winning. Permanently.

2332-29
Human beings like certainty. This liking stems from our ancient ancestors who needed to survive alongside saber‑toothed tigers and poisonous berries. Our brains evolved to help us attend to threats, keep away from them, and remain alive afterward. In fact, we learned that the more certain we were about something, the better chance we had of making the right choice. Is this berry the same shape as last time? The same size? If I know for certain it is, my brain will direct me to eat it because I know it's safe. And if I'm uncertain, my brain will send out a danger alert to protect me. The dependence on certainty all those millennia ago ensured our survival to the present day, and the danger‑alert system continues to protect us. This is achieved by our brains labeling new, vague, or unpredictable everyday events and experiences as uncertain. Our brains then generate sensations, thoughts, and action plans to keep us safe from the uncertain element, and we live to see another day.

2332-30
Robert Blattberg and Steven Hoch noted that, in a changing environment, it is not clear that consistency is always a virtue and that one of the advantages of human judgment is the ability to detect change. Thus, in changing environments, it might be advantageous to combine human judgment and statistical models. Blattberg and Hoch examined this possibility by having supermarket managers forecast demand for certain products and then creating a composite forecast by averaging these judgments with the forecasts of statistical models based on past data. The logic was that statistical models assume stable conditions and therefore cannot account for the effects on demand of novel events such as actions taken by competitors or the introduction of new products. Humans, however, can incorporate these novel factors in their judgments. The composite ─ or average of human judgments and statistical models ─ proved to be more accurate than either the statistical models or the managers working alone.

2332-31
Free play is nature's means of teaching children that they are not helpless. In play, away from adults, children really do have control and can practice asserting it. In free play, children learn to make their own decisions, solve their own problems, create and follow rules, and get along with others as equals rather than as obedient or rebellious subordinates. In active outdoor play, children deliberately dose themselves with moderate amounts of fear and they thereby learn how to control not only their bodies, but also their fear. In social play children learn how to negotiate with others, how to please others, and how to manage and overcome the anger that can arise from conflicts. None of these lessons can be taught through verbal means; they can be learned only through experience, which free play provides.

2332-32
Many early dot‑com investors focused almost entirely on revenue growth instead of net income. Many early dot‑com companies earned most of their revenue from selling advertising space on their Web sites. To boost reported revenue, some sites began exchanging ad space. Company A would put an ad for its Web site on company B's Web site, and company B would put an ad for its Web site on company A's Web site. No money ever changed hands, but each company recorded revenue (for the value of the space that it gave up on its site) and expense (for the value of its ad that it placed on the other company's site). This practice did little to boost net income and resulted in no additional cash inflow ─ but it did boost reported revenue. This practice was quickly put to an end because accountants felt that it did not meet the criteria of the revenue recognition principle.

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